Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 February 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 13/0759Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb, 16 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 13/0155Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/0345Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1338Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu at 13/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (16 Feb). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (14 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton99%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Feb 195
  Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 192/192/195
  90 Day Mean        13 Feb 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Feb  016/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  020/025-010/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb to 16 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%10%
Minor storm30%05%01%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm70%25%20%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

44%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/04/13M2.3
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
March 2024104.9 -19.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024M2.3
22023C8.3
32015C6.76
42023C6.6
52015C6.17
ApG
1200150G3
2199431G1
3200530G1
4201625G1
5201220G1
*since 1994

Social networks