Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Apr 20 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached moderate levels this period. Region 3647 (S13W00, Dac/beta-delta) produced two M-flares (R1/Minor), the largest of which was an M2.1 flare at 19/0453 UTC. Region 3647 began to show signs of separation of the shared penumbra between its principle spots. Region 3645 (S09W04, Dai/beta) underwent slight decay in its intermediate spot area and consolidation of the leader and trailing spots. Region 3639 (N29W02, Ekc/beta-gamma) underwent some slight area growth. New Regions 3649 (N16W24, Bxi/beta), 3650 (S11E21, Cro/beta) and 3651 (N13E25, Bxo/beta) were numbered, but were otherwise unremarkable. Other activity included a large prominence eruption on the SE limb beginning at around 19/0400 UTC, however, the associated CME is not Earth-directed. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels on 19-21 Apr. M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are expected, with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3/Strong), due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 20-22 Apr. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed S1 (Minor) storm levels over 20-22 Apr due to the flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind conditions became enhanced beginning at 19/0413 UTC due to CME activity. Following CME arrival, total field strength reached 18 nT and the Bz component was sustained southward after 19/0410 UTC with a peak of -17 nT observed. Solar wind speeds reached up to ~549 km/s at 19/2233 UTC.

Forecast

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 20-22 Apr due to CME activity (on 20 and 21 Apr) and negative polarity CH HSS influences (on 20-22 Apr).

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels this period in response to CME activity.

Forecast

Periods of unsettled to active levels are expected on 20-21 Apr due to continued CME activity, coupled with the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences and the anticipated arrival of multiple CMEs from 16-18 Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22 Apr due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.