Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 Jul 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M2.4 flare at 23/1428 UTC that originated from an unnumbered area just beyond the eastern limb. Region 3751 (S08W56, Eso/beta-gamma-delta) exhibited slight decay in its trailing spots and was relatively quiet. Region 3761 (S10W42, Eki/beta-gamma) underwent consolidation in its leading spots and was responsible for a C4.5 at 23/0349 and C8.4 flare at 23/0903 UTC. Region 3762 (S12E24, Eai/beta-gamma-delta) grew in overall length while maintaining small delta umbrae in its trailing penumbra. Region 3765 (S11E74, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. The remaining numbered spot groups were relatively stable and quiet. The aforementioned C4.5 flare event produced a CME first seen in SOHO LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 23/0412 UTC. Modeling of this event suggests a possible glancing blow at Earth by late on 27 Jul. The aforementioned M2.4 flare event, accompanied by a type II radio sweep registering 457 km/s, produced a CME as well. While an Earth-directed component is not likely given the source location, there is at present a gap in SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery from 23/0800-23/1800 UTC which makes proper analysis difficult at this time.
Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for X-class flares (R3, Strong) through 26 Jul.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 levels with a peak flux of 24.8 pfu at 23/1040 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux reached 1.63 pfu at 23/0430 UTC.
Forecast
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 26 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at S1 levels through 24 Jul before returning to a slight chance thereafter.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary
Solar wind parameters reflected a mostly ambient-like environment until approximately 23/1950 UTC when shock arrival from what is likely the 21 Jul CME materialized. At this time total field increased to 16-17 nT and wind speeds abruptly increased from ~250 km/s to ~332 km/s. However, the Bz component of the IMF remained northward. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector.
Forecast
Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at or near current levels through late 24 Jul. Onset of influence from a CME that left the Sun on 21 Jul is expected to enhance conditions over 24-25 Jul.

Geospace

24 h Summary
The geomagnetic field reached unsettled levels.
Forecast
G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely on 24 Jul due to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 21 Jul. Active conditions are likely on 25 Jul as CME influence wanes. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail on 26 Jul with the return of ambient-like conditions.

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