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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 12/0348Z from Region 3576 (S17W37). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb, 15 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 705 km/s at 12/0646Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 11/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2257Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 81 pfu at 12/1550Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (13 Feb), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (14 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (15 Feb). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (13 Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (14 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (15 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton99%50%25%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 208
  Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 190/185/185
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 161

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  012/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  007/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  028/040-017/024-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%20%
Minor storm40%25%05%
Major-severe storm25%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm75%65%25%

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