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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 16/0330Z from Region 3541 (S20W77). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 16/0636Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0627Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 15/2326Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jan, 18 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (19 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 180
  Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan 180/170/165
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%25%10%

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