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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at 10/1213Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 09/2308Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 09/2111Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/1434Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 738 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Mar, 12 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (13 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Mar 127
  Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 125/125/122
  90 Day Mean        10 Mar 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Mar  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  009/012-008/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar to 13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%05%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%15%
Major-severe storm35%30%15%

All times in UTC

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