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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
08/2126Z from Region 3599 (S12W15). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10
Mar, 11 Mar, 12 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 08/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 08/2251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/2310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 496 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Mar,
11 Mar, 12 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Mar 135 Predicted 10 Mar-12 Mar 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 09 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar 016/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 007/010-009/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar to 12 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 35% | 30% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/10 | X3.8 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/10 | M2.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/06 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 138 +1.5 |
| Last 30 days | 167.9 +77.8 |