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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 10/2307Z from Region 3576 (S16W09). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 11/1703Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 11/0156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 11/0313Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 134 pfu at 11/0315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Feb), active to major storm levels on day two (13 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (14 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
Class M65%65%65%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Feb 180
  Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 182/180/180
  90 Day Mean        11 Feb 160

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Feb  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  012/018-025/038-017/023

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm25%35%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%05%10%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm60%70%60%

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