Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 February 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 10/0354Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 09/2147Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1003Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 187 pfu at 09/2355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (11 Feb), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (12 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton99%50%25%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Feb 194
  Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 198/198/195
  90 Day Mean        10 Feb 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  006/005-012/018-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%40%40%
Minor storm01%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%60%60%

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