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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X3 event observed at 09/1314Z from Region 3575 (S37, L=178). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (10 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 09/0906Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/0916Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 113 pfu at 09/1825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 132 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (12 Feb). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10 Feb), are likely to cross threshold on day two (11 Feb) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M60%50%50%
Class X25%10%10%
Proton99%60%25%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 183
  Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 178/178/180
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 159

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  008/010-007/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%35%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%25%45%

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