OVATION Auroral Forecast

This model gives a short-term forecast of the intensity of the auroral oval for both the northern and the southern hemisphere. It is based on the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft. The map shows the intensity and the location of the auroral oval for the time given in the right-hand corner of the map. Locations up to 1.000 kilometers (600 miles) north or south of the auroral oval might still see aurora near their horizon during optimal viewing conditions. This model does not take into account the local weather or the altitude of the Sun at your location.

Northern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Southern hemisphere

OVATION Auroral Forecast

Hemispheric Power

The OVATION model calculates a globally integrated total energy deposition in GigaWatts for up to 30 minutes in the future. For values below about 20GW, there may be little or no aurora observable. For values between 20 and 50, you may need to be near the aurora to see it. For values above 50, the aurora should be quite observable with lots of activity and motion across the sky. Once the Hemispheric Power reaches levels of 100 or more, this is considered to be a very significant geomagnetic storm.

What are the odds that I can see overhead aurora from my location?

Canada
Halifax, NS0%
Iqaluit, NU24%
Montreal, QC1%
Ottawa, ON1%
Quebec City, QC1%
St. John's, NL0%
Toronto, ON0%
Cuba
Havana0%
Greenland
Nuuk29%
United States
Atlanta, GA0%
Augusta, ME0%
Boston, MA0%
Columbus, OH0%
Detroit, MI0%
Indianapolis, IN0%
Miami, FL0%
Montpelier, VT0%
Nashville, TN0%
New York City, NY0%
Richmond, VA0%
Washington, D.C.0%
Austria
Vienna0%
Belarus
Minsk0%
Belgium
Brussels0%
Czech Republic
Brno0%
Prague0%
Denmark
Aalborg1%
Aarhus0%
Copenhagen0%
Estonia
Tallinn3%
Faroe Islands
Tórshavn17%
Finland
Helsinki4%
Oulu17%
Rovaniemi19%
Tampere7%
Turku5%
Kuopio9%
Sodankylä19%
Utsjoki19%
France
Lyon0%
Marseille0%
Nantes0%
Nice0%
Paris0%
Toulouse0%
Germany
Berlin0%
Cologne0%
Frankfurt0%
Hamburg0%
Munich0%
Greece
Athens0%
Hungary
Budapest0%
Iceland
Reykjavik29%
Ireland
Dublin0%
Italy
Milan0%
Naples0%
Rome0%
Turin0%
Kazakhstan
Astana0%
Latvia
Riga0%
Lithuania
Vilnius0%
Netherlands
Amsterdam0%
Norway
Bergen7%
Kirkenes18%
Oslo4%
Tromsø20%
Trondheim15%
Poland
Gdańsk0%
Krakow0%
Warsaw0%
Portugal
Lisbon0%
Porto0%
Romania
Bucharest0%
Russia
Arkhangelsk12%
Kazan0%
Moscow0%
Murmansk18%
Perm1%
Petrozavodsk6%
Saint Petersburg2%
Surgut2%
Syktyvkar4%
Vorkuta12%
Yaroslavl0%
Yekaterinburg0%
Slovenia
Ljubljana0%
Slovakia
Bratislava0%
Spain
Barcelona0%
Madrid0%
Sweden
Gothenburg1%
Kiruna21%
Luleå18%
Malmö0%
Stockholm3%
Sundsvall10%
Umeå13%
Switzerland
Bern0%
United Kingdom
Belfast0%
Birmingham0%
Edinburgh0%
London0%
Manchester0%
Ukraine
Dnipro0%
Donetsk0%
Kharkiv0%
Kyiv0%
Argentina
Buenos Aires0%
South Africa
Capetown0%
Durban0%
Uruguay
Montevideo0%

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