3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Apr 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 23-Apr 25 2024 is 4 (.33below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Apr 23       Apr 24       Apr 25
00-03UT       2.33         3.00         3.00     
03-06UT       3.00         2.67         2.67     
06-09UT       3.67         2.67         3.67     
09-12UT       3.67         2.00         4.33     
12-15UT       2.67         2.00         3.67     
15-18UT       2.67         1.67         3.33     
18-21UT       2.67         1.67         2.67     
21-00UT       3.00         2.67         4.33     

Rationale

There is a chance of G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms on 24 Apr (Day 3).

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 23-Apr 25 2024

              Apr 23  Apr 24  Apr 25
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale

There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms all three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 22 2024 1550 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 23-Apr 25 2024

              Apr 23        Apr 24        Apr 25
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio blackouts are expected. There is a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) radio blackouts with 20 active regions on the visible disk.