3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 Feb 22 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 22-Feb 24 2024 is 2 (.33below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             Feb 22       Feb 23       Feb 24
00-03UT       2.00         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       2.33         1.33         1.33     
06-09UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
09-12UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     

Rationale
No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2024

              Feb 22  Feb 23  Feb 24
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale
There is a slight chance for a S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storm over the next three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Feb 21 2024 2307 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2024

              Feb 22        Feb 23        Feb 24
R1-R2           55%           55%           55%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected and there is a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackout over the next three days.

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