Viewing archive of Monday, 15 January 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 15/1405Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached an estimated peak of 372 km/s at 15/1306Z. Wind speeds were suspect due to unreliable DSCOVR data. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 15/1845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 15/1940Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan, 18 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jan 183
  Predicted   16 Jan-18 Jan 185/185/175
  90 Day Mean        15 Jan 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan  008/008-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm25%30%25%

All times in UTC

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