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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
11/0850Z from Region 3599 (S12W55). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s at 10/2125Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/1727Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/0729Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1417 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Mar, 13 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (14 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 127 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/11 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/12 | X0.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/11 | Kp9 (G5) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 140.5 +4 |
| Last 30 days | 172.8 +81.3 |