Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 February 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/0310Z from Region 3582 (N06W40). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (15 Feb, 16 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 14/0853Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/0607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0145Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 47 pfu at 14/1030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (15 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (16 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
Class M55%55%35%
Class X15%15%05%
Proton75%15%05%
PCAFred
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Feb 184
  Predicted   15 Feb-17 Feb 185/182/175
  90 Day Mean        14 Feb 162

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Feb  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb  010/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%20%20%

All times in UTC

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