Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 January 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 18 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 18/0408Z from Region 3553 (N05E03). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Jan, 20 Jan, 21 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 18/0907Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/0335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/0636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (19 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 162
  Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan 162/160/155
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  006/005-008/010-011/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%20%20%

All times in UTC

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