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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 17/0724Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 17/1740Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/2055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 17/1958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Jan, 19 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jan 174
  Predicted   18 Jan-20 Jan 165/160/160
  90 Day Mean        17 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jan  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan  005/008-006/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%10%20%

All times in UTC

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