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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/1638Z from Region 3576 (S16E72). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 04/1933Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 04/1116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/1654Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 210 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (06 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (07 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Feb 170
  Predicted   05 Feb-07 Feb 170/170/170
  90 Day Mean        04 Feb 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Feb  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb  017/020-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%20%10%
Minor storm25%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%20%
Major-severe storm60%25%20%

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