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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 8 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 07/2225Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 361 km/s at 08/1806Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 08/1847Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jan, 10 Jan, 11 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
Class M45%45%45%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jan 176
  Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan 180/185/190
  90 Day Mean        08 Jan 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  003/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jan  004/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  007/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%15%15%

All times in UTC

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