Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 February 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 34 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 03/0554Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 346 km/s at 03/1626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 274 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Feb), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (05 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb, 06 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Feb 156
  Predicted   04 Feb-06 Feb 160/165/165
  90 Day Mean        03 Feb 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Feb  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Feb  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Feb-06 Feb  012/014-017/020-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Feb to 06 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%25%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm50%60%25%

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