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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 02/1258Z from Region 3595 (N20W35). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 578 km/s at 02/0719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Mar), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (05 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Mar 152
  Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 150/155/150
  90 Day Mean        02 Mar 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  009/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Mar  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  010/012-008/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar to 05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%25%15%
Major-severe storm20%25%10%

All times in UTC

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