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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 03/1729Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (04 Mar, 05 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (06 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 03/0528Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 03/1108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 03/1513Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 383 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
Class M25%25%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Mar 146
  Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 145/140/140
  90 Day Mean        03 Mar 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Mar  018/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  013/014-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar to 06 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%05%05%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%15%15%
Major-severe storm30%10%10%

All times in UTC

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