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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 04/2237Z from Region 3576 (S16E72). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 05/1757Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/1611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 05/1624Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (08 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
Class M60%60%45%
Class X25%25%10%
Proton15%15%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Feb 173
  Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb 175/175/165
  90 Day Mean        05 Feb 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Feb  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  010/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%20%

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