Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 February 2024

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 06/0312Z from Region 3575 (S36W78). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (07 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1104 km/s at 06/0820Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/2306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 06/0135Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (07 Feb), quiet levels on day two (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (09 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (07 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
Class M60%45%45%
Class X25%10%10%
Proton25%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Feb 190
  Predicted   07 Feb-09 Feb 180/175/175
  90 Day Mean        06 Feb 157

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Feb  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb  009/008-006/005-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb to 09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%30%
Minor storm05%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm25%20%20%

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