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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 07/0331Z from Region 3575 (S37W90). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (08 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 546 km/s at 07/0202Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 07/0241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 116 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (08 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
Class M60%45%45%
Class X25%10%10%
Proton25%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Feb 188
  Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        07 Feb 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  006/005-011/015-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%35%
Minor storm01%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%50%

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