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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 08/1312Z from Region 3576 (S16E17). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (09 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 661 km/s at 08/0735Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 08/1120Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (09 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M60%45%45%
Class X25%10%10%
Proton25%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 185
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 180/175/175
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 158

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  011/015-009/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%20%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%50%25%

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