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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 29/0230Z from Region 3615 (S13W81). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (01 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 702 km/s at 28/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (30 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (31 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
Class M75%75%05%
Class X25%25%01%
Proton15%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Mar 167
  Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 165/150/145
  90 Day Mean        29 Mar 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Mar  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  008/008-009/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar to 01 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%30%30%
Major-severe storm25%30%30%

All times in UTC

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