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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 28/2056Z from Region 3615 (S13W69). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (31 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 865 km/s at 27/2336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 241 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (29 Mar) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (30 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M75%75%05%
Class X25%25%01%
Proton30%10%05%
PCAFRed
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 173
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 175/170/155
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 164

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  007/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  005/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  007/008-008/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%30%
Major-severe storm30%25%30%

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