Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/2158Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (28 Mar, 29 Mar)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (30 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 27/0957Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 27/0814Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
27/0623Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2 pfu at 27/0015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 242 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (28 Mar, 29 Mar) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (30 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 40% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Mar 175 Predicted 28 Mar-30 Mar 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 27 Mar 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar 011/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar 005/005-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
Latest news
Saturday, 11 May 2024
Extreme G5 geomagnetic storm
Friday, 10 May 2024
Severe G4 geomagnetic storm
Friday, 10 May 2024
Coronal mass ejection impact, Severe G4 geomagnetic storm possible!
Latest forum messages
Geomagnetic storming, CMEs from AR 13664, 2024-05-09/10 1029Is there any truth to this "Internet/Electrical Grid Apocalypse"? 142AR3664 774Aurora scatter? 1Sporadic E and Flare activity 29
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/11 | X5.7 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/10 | M3.7 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/10 | Kp9 (G5) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 139.8 +3.3 |
| Last 30 days | 170.5 +79.6 |