Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
26/1330Z from Region 3615 (S13W41). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28
Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 852 km/s at 26/0503Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 26/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
26/0324Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 26/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (27 Mar, 29
Mar) and quiet levels on day two (28 Mar). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 178 Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 26 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 017/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 008/008-005/005-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/11 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/11 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/10 | Kp9 (G5) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 139.8 +3.3 |
| Last 30 days | 173.6 +82.2 |