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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 28/0909Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached an estimated peak of 470 km/s. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0956Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0956Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 128 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Feb to 02 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Feb 180
  Predicted   29 Feb-02 Mar 180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        28 Feb 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Feb  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar  007/008-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb to 02 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm15%20%20%

All times in UTC

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