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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 24/0140Z from Region 3561 (S17W57). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 24/0850Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0028Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/2342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 101 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (26 Jan) and active to minor storm levels on day three (27 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Jan, 26 Jan, 27 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jan 172
  Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        24 Jan 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  016/020-018/025-023/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm55%30%30%

All times in UTC

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