Viewing archive of Thursday, 28 December 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 28/1058Z from Region 3533 (N14W38). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Maximum solar wind speed was not available given unreliable observations from the real time solar wind source. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2240Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 28/1617Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Dec 147
  Predicted   29 Dec-31 Dec 145/145/140
  90 Day Mean        28 Dec 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Dec  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec  008/005-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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