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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 20/1556Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 363 km/s at 20/0031Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/1922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/1951Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 120 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Feb, 22 Feb, 23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Feb 153
  Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb 155/155/150
  90 Day Mean        20 Feb 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Feb  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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