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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 23/0331Z from Region 3559 (N27W03). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 22/2137Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 22/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0941Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (24 Jan, 26 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (25 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jan 180
  Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan 180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        23 Jan 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  014/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  014/018-016/020-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%55%30%

All times in UTC

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