Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 23 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
23/0331Z from Region 3559 (N27W03). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 22/2137Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 22/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0941Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (24 Jan, 26
Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (25 Jan). Protons
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jan 180 Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 014/018-016/020-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 55% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/15 | X2.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/19 | M1.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 157.7 +21.2 |
| Last 30 days | 169.2 +51.4 |