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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 25/1522Z from Region 3561 (S17W71). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (26 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 25/0614Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 25/1435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/1743Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 108 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jan), active to minor storm levels on day two (27 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (28 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (26 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
Class M45%45%35%
Class X10%05%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jan 161
  Predicted   26 Jan-28 Jan 160/160/150
  90 Day Mean        25 Jan 156

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  018/025-023/030-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%30%20%

All times in UTC

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