Viewing archive of Friday, 29 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
29/0754Z from Region 3533 (N14W52). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 488 km/s at 28/2229Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
29/1331Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/0605Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 321 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec)
and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 143 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 142/140/136 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 009/010-007/010-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/06/02 | M1.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/17 | Kp6 (G2) |
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