Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 December 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 02/0351Z from Region 3500 (S18W58). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 01/2108Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 01/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 01/2342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Dec), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (04 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (05 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Dec 148
  Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 145/142/138
  90 Day Mean        02 Dec 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  030/059
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  008/010-024/033-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%35%
Minor storm05%30%15%
Major-severe storm01%15%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%30%20%

All times in UTC

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