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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 01/0439Z from Region 3502 (N14W81). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 567 km/s at 01/1443Z. Total IMF reached 28 nT at 01/1022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -26 nT at 01/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 324 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (02 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Dec) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (04 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Dec 162
  Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 162/158/155
  90 Day Mean        01 Dec 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Dec  039/058
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  022/028-008/010-024/033

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%15%35%
Minor storm30%05%30%
Major-severe storm15%01%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%30%

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