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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 29/2241Z from Region 3500 (S18W18). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 30/0027Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2359Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 394 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (01 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Nov 167
  Predicted   01 Dec-03 Dec 166/162/158
  90 Day Mean        30 Nov 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Nov  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec  037/054-018/022-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%15%
Minor storm30%25%05%
Major-severe storm40%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm60%20%20%

All times in UTC

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