Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
28/2331Z from Region 3499 (S17W59). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 454 km/s at 29/0041Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
28/2108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
29/1122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 392 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 Nov), unsettled
to severe storm levels on day two (01 Dec) and quiet to minor storm
levels on day three (02 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (30 Nov, 01 Dec) and have a slight chance
of crossing threshold on day three (02 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 171 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 175/170/165 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 020/030-037/054-018/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 40% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 60% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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