Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
27/2340Z from Region 3503 (N15E31). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 480 km/s at 28/1809Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
27/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/2305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 180 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 Nov), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (30 Nov) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (01 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Nov 182 Predicted 29 Nov-01 Dec 185/182/180 90 Day Mean 28 Nov 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov 002/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 008/010-024/030-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 45% | 50% |
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