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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 21/0217Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (22 Feb, 23 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 376 km/s at 21/1527Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/1525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Feb, 23 Feb, 24 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
Class M30%35%40%
Class X05%05%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Feb 170
  Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb 170/175/180
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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