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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 21/2307Z from Region 3590 (N17E38). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 21/2339Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/0438Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Feb, 24 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (25 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
Class M55%55%55%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Feb 173
  Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 175/180/180
  90 Day Mean        22 Feb 163

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  006/005-006/005-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%35%

All times in UTC

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