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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
20/0736Z from Region 3615 (S12E39). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Mar, 22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 20/0024Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
20/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/0441Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (21 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (22 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (23
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 176 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 178/176/174 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 015/020-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 30% | 10% |
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/11 | X1.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/12 | M3.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/11 | Kp9 (G5) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| May 2024 | 139.8 +3.3 |
| Last 30 days | 173.6 +82.2 |