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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 23/0338Z. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov, 26 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 22/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 709 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (26 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Nov 194
  Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov 195/195/195
  90 Day Mean        23 Nov 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  017/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Nov  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  007/005-007/010-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%45%
Minor storm05%05%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%60%

All times in UTC

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