Viewing archive of Friday, 24 November 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
24/0933Z from Region 3499 (S17W09). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 418 km/s at 24/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
24/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/1852Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Nov, 27 Nov)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (26 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Nov,
26 Nov, 27 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 178 Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 175/175/175 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 007/010-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 60% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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