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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 24/0933Z from Region 3499 (S17W09). There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 418 km/s at 24/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 24/1852Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1170 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Nov, 27 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (26 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Nov 178
  Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 175/175/175
  90 Day Mean        24 Nov 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  007/010-015/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%45%30%
Minor storm05%25%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%15%
Minor storm20%30%20%
Major-severe storm20%60%30%

All times in UTC

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