Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 December 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 21/0538Z from Region 3519 (S12W72). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec, 24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 21/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (23 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Dec 194
  Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec 194/190/190
  90 Day Mean        21 Dec 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Dec  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  005/005-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%10%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%25%20%

All times in UTC

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