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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 354 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Dec 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 20/0854Z from Region 3521 (N11E03). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Dec, 22 Dec, 23 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 618 km/s at 19/2107Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 852 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Dec), quiet levels on day two (22 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Dec 195
  Predicted   21 Dec-23 Dec 190/188/186
  90 Day Mean        20 Dec 149

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Dec  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Dec  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Dec-23 Dec  007/010-005/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Dec to 23 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%25%
Minor storm05%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%25%

All times in UTC

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