Viewing archive of Friday, 27 October 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 26/2324Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 26/2100Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 27/0430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/0406Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 307 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (29 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (30 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Oct 128
  Predicted   28 Oct-30 Oct 128/130/130
  90 Day Mean        27 Oct 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct  018/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Oct  014/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct  009/008-009/012-016/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%40%
Minor storm05%10%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm20%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%40%65%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

98%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/06/10X1.55
Last M-flare2024/07/13M5.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/06/28Kp8- (G4)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
June 2024164.2 -7.5
July 2024151.2 -13
Last 30 days153.8 +4.3

This day in history*

Solar flares
12000X8.21
22005X1.86
32005X1.3
42004M8.91
51998M6.36
DstG
11982-325G5
21991-158G3
31961-132G4
42013-81G1
51984-60G2
*since 1994

Social networks