Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 October 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 26/1326Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (27 Oct, 28 Oct) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 620 km/s at 26/1941Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 26/0819Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 26/0908Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
Class M05%05%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Oct 126
  Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct 126/126/130
  90 Day Mean        26 Oct 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Oct  015/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  013/016-009/008-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%15%30%
Minor storm35%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm70%20%40%

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